My history of prediction and analysis


The purpose of this article is to make the case for why anyone should take my analyses and predictions seriously.

I am not interested in glory or dominance.

I have three motives: 1) I plan to make a particularly important prediction and analysis, and it will then be necessary to cite my record thus far. 2) If a critical mass takes my predictions and analyses seriously enough, that will move us closer to the world we all want. 3) If a critical mass takes my predictions and analyses seriously enough, then that may force the Apex Players to abandon (or at least postpone) their plans.

After we look at some things I have gotten right, we will look at some things I have gotten wrong, because what I got wrong reveals how I adapted and why I have been getting so many things right in the last few years. We will also talk about my techniques.

It would be impossible to compile everything I have gotten right across all forums over the last 40 years, but I will make a start.

Things I got right

When I was a teenager, I wrote a letter to the Secretary of Defense explaining how easily the USSR could defeat their imminent deployment of 100 MX ICBMs in a configuration they called “Dense Pack”. Before that, I was hearing about it on the news every night for months, and it was promoted in every journal I read, such as “Aviation Week and Space Technology”. Three weeks after I sent my letter, I never heard another mention of dense pack. That was the first time I saved us all.

Also throughout my teenage years, I went to a magnet school for kids whose parents cared about them the most, and who were thus above average, and yet: 1) I won an essay contest against all 1300 other kids about why America was exceptional. (I was just a freshman.) 2) My guidance counselor told me that I got the highest SAT score out of the 300 students in my class. 3) I snuck into the room that had everyone’s report cards and verified that my grades were higher than everyone else in my class that year (junior year).

As a teenager I was also: 1) designing jet fighters, strategic bombers, anti-ballistic missiles, and satellite launch systems. 2) Mapping the shape of the universe. 3) Tracking the production rates and capabilities of Warsaw Pact weapons systems vs. NATO. 3) Designing global governments. 4) Developing strategies to defeat the USSR, such as by finding the optimum points from which to launch nuclear cruise missiles if necessary. That was all just for fun. It was nothing serious or in collaboration with others.

These are not just early examples of my abilities, but they also help to explain why I have such high confidence in my abilities, which I also thought was a large source of my motivation, but I later realized that my motivation comes from deep within and is inexhaustible. Maybe it is in my genes. Maybe it is metaphysical.

A few years later, in 1990, I was thinking about the future, and I foresaw two products that I had never heard mentioned before—not even as primitive prototypes. One was smart phones and the other was digital cameras—just like what we have today. My friends just thought it was amusing, but one later admitted that I had totally nailed it back then.

Also in the 90’s ….

I have been saying since the mid 90’s that freedom would keep going down, and it has …. and that prices, taxes, laws, regulations, government spending, and political correctness would keep going up; and they have.

It was probably 1995 when I tried to figure out if it were possible for the free-market to do everything we needed and do it better than government. After about six months, I had it figured out. One of my more recent explanations is called Rule of Market.

I have never invested much time into YouTube, Facebook, or Twitter, because I have said since about 1999 that once such platforms are big enough, they will use that power to pull the rug out from under independent thinkers who depend on them, which they have been doing for a few years now. As you may have guessed, everyone told me that would never happen.

In February 2011, I heard (for the first time) a popular interpretation of the Biblical end-times prophecy whose tenets were all well within the capabilities of powerful human players (e.g. building the third temple), and I immediately predicted it would be used to manipulate Christians and non-Christians, which is potentially billions of people. My earliest writing that I have found about it is from November 3rd, 2013. Among the recent confirmations are: 1) Rabbis are claiming that the messiah is here. an 2) The prerequisite of finding a perfect red heifer has been accomplished.

Throughout 2011, I was explaining to progressives in Seattle that Obama voters were getting really frustrated, and that they were desperate for Obama to give them their orders, but they all insisted that Obama voters thought no such thing. Then, in November 2011, Chris Matthews, who was probably Obama’s biggest fan in the media, cried out in frustration on his national TV show, “Obama! Give us our orders!”

On December 16, 2012, I said that Matt Damon is being used to condition us on how they want us to behave, and who they want us to trust, during a global pandemic.

I said on June 10, 2013, that those at the top can start a pandemic anytime they want, and they did. I had been saying that for a few years before then, but I found an article from 2013 where I said the following:

They have been preparing for exactly this kind of end game if necessary. They can precipitate civil wars, class wars, race wars, genocide, economic collapse, world wars, nuclear wars, famine, and pandemics. No cost is too great. Winning the end game is the only thing that matters to them.

On August 18, 2016, I foresaw the details of a coming alien hoax. One element of that prediction was a man-made virus that would be released, and for which the vaccine would be the actual weapon.

Real aliens wouldn’t exterminate us by physically attacking us. They would simply create a virus that would kill us. Therefore, the Players might choose to use a virus, which again is plausible human technology, and they would claim that they got the vaccine from the good aliens. Of course, the vaccine would also be a eugenics program, and its ill effects would simply be blamed on the original virus, when they were in fact caused by the vaccine.

On September 3, 2016, I exposed that the CDC was seeking the power to indefinitely detain unlimited numbers of people.

I said before the 2016 election that Hillary Clinton, who was the Secretary of State for the Obama/Biden administration, and who was the front runner for President in that election; would be much more likely than Trump to start WWIII and that it would be with Russia, and then we saw how she and her allies in the media blamed Russia for everything for years after that. In 2022, we saw Biden trying pretty hard to start WWIII with Russia, such as by having the proxy regime in Ukraine fire artillery on Ukrainian citizens who live near the Russian border, and who identify more as Russians, all in an effort to provoke Russia to intervene to protect them. Then Biden blew up the two natural gas pipelines by which Russia supplied Europe with natural gas. My usual techniques told me immediately that he was the perpetrator, and I already knew that The US has admitted to provoking wars in the past and planning to provoke wars in the future. Then I got confirmation by the end of that same day. It was a video from February 7, 2022, in which Biden confessed his intent to put an end to the (already existing) pipelines if Russia intervened, and I got further confirmation after he blew up the pipelines when his allies at home and abroad applauded the act. As of this writing (11/12/22), the result of such reckless war crimes is that 4 out of 8 commands are estimated to be at DEFCON 2, and the other 4 are at DEFCON 3. This has never happened before.

I said on November 19, 2016, which was days after the election and two months before Trump would take office on January 20, 2021, that Trump’s role was to take all anti-establishment types down with him, and he did.

In spite of Q-anon movement doing good work that was pretty consistent with my positions, I was never fooled by the Q-anon psyop.

I said on February 28, 2020 that the spike in CEO departures meant that something big was coming that would impact CEOs in a big and negative way, and which would thus probably impact us too. There was no way to know at the time that it would be years of profoundly perverse policies by the entire Western establishment in reaction to sars-cov-2. Notice how the post was later censored by reddit. If the link therefore does not work for you, here is an image of that post.

When have the book burners ever been the good guys?

On April 11, 2020, I already knew that there were cheap, safe, and effective Covid prophylactics and therapeutics, that were being suppressed. My article was banned for a while, but it is currently available again. If it gets banned again, here are images of the first page and the second page.

On May 24th, 2020, I predicted the George Floyd incident the day before it happened (see the “Psyops” section).

It was never about safety. It was always about control.

My article on September 4th, 2020, about the Rittenhouse/Kenosha incident has proven to be correct from the beginning, in spite of a massive disinformation campaign by the entire establishment. Although it was one of thousands of things I have been right about, unlike most, a large portion of the mainstream was allowed to learn that my position was correct in this case.

I said on May 2, 2021: “I wouldn’t be all that surprised if a war with Iran, a government digital currency, a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, a major step to disarm the American people, and a catastrophic cyber attack …. all happen this year.” That is a little hard to parse, so let’s translate that into a more concrete form. If I would not be all that surprised, that means I would be surprised, but that I would not be extraordinarily surprised. In even more concrete terms: I expected one of those thing to happen in the next 12 months, and I expected the others to move closer to reality in the next 12 months, and that is exactly what happened, and as of this writing, they continue to move closer to reality. If reddit censors that link, here is an image of that post. As I clarified just two weeks later when a limited form of vaccine passports became a reality, “they are not going to shoot all of their bullets in one year”. Here is an image of that post.

On September 26, 2021, which was 17 days after the POTUS declared an unconstitutional Covid vaccine mandate for the whole country, I published my comprehensive recommendations for cheap, safe, and effective prophylactics and therapeutics. I told everyone I knew that if my wife and I got Covid, we would kick its ass. This brought ridicule from those still in thrall to the establishment narrative. Then on Monday, June 27, 2022, Covid hit us hard and fast, and my regimen kicked its ass.

On January 1, 2022, ongoing attempts by the entire Western establishment to blackwash natural immunity forced me to publish an article explaining the superiority of natural immunity, which I had deduced since first hearing about the EUA vaccines in mid 2020.

When the US suddenly got out of Afghanistan, I said that the motive may be that the US was planning to use those troops for their next war. Then when the Western establishment suddenly backed off from Covid, I said that their next big op, probably in Ukraine, must be imminent.

Before social distancing, I had said the Apex Players were trying to make us dislike, distrust, and distance each other, so that we are looking at each other instead of looking at them, and so that we cannot unite against them.

How I do it

Some techniques and perspectives that help me to make such predictions and analyses:

  1. Probably the main reason that I get things right so early and with so little effort is by considering the credibility and history of the source. Some examples: 1) Does the source have a conflict of interest? 2) Have I previously caught the source in a lie? 3) How credible are the allies/opponents of the source? 4) What agenda has the source consistently promoted?
  2. I frequently evaluate a wide variety of sources.
  3. I frequently solicit feedback from a wide variety of people.
  4. I help my opponents find the best possible argument for their position.
  5. I consider how compatible new information is with what I have already vetted.
  6. I developed a rule long ago from observing my pets: “When something is out of the ordinary, investigate.”
  7. I trust my own ability to think.
  8. I try to unload any personal baggage.
  9. I try to go wherever the facts take me.
  10. I consider no question off limits.
  11. I am always on the lookout for evidence of the extraordinary.
  12. I tend to think that nothing is final.
  13. I see all that exists as clay—as just more raw materials for building the future.
  14. I am comfortable with uncertainty. Certainty is just an emotion. Almost nothing is 0% or 100%. Almost everything is somewhere in between.
  15. I use my subconscious. For example, if I am stuck, I say to myself, “It is almost as if ….”, and my subconscious will often provide the thought that my conscious mind had placed off limits.
  16. I frequently test my understanding, such as by making predictions. These are mostly little predictions, such as predicting the order in which respondents will choose each answer in a poll that I developed.
  17. I frequently test my own biases with the mirror test.
  18. I am willing to not have any friends if that is the result of pursuing truth.
  19. I am continually adjusting my current understanding based on new information.

One of the reasons my understanding is so mature is that the new information I incorporate includes corrective feedback. Incorporating corrective feedback has not only directly improved my abilities, but it has revealed a trend in my errors.

The Trend

Let me first give an example.

Although I correctly understood in 2011 that Obama’s followers were desperate for him to give them their orders, and although I was correct in spite of rabid denial by every Obama follower I asked, I was wrong about there being a 30% chance of a third term for Obama, which I think I first predicted in 2009, which was the first year of his first term, and which was also extraordinarily unconstitutional in a direct manner that the average person could see, and thus no one else was predicting it yet.

I was correct that sufficient power and sufficient desire existed. I was also right that Obama was the first President in our lifetime who had so much potential to command armies of civilians, so I was sure they would use that power if they could. My thinking was, “Why else would they have created the Myth of Obama in the first place?”

However, I did not understand that Obama was just a test run of his masters’ ability to create an Obama. I did not understand how easily they could create another Obama. I did not understand that they would still be around to create another Obama because they were not just the left. I did not understand the extent to which both parties worked for the same people. I did not understand that their masters were globally dominant and not just controlling America. Therefore, I did not understand that giving Obama a third term would have pierced the illusion of legitimacy, which out which, they are finished. Americans—the world—would have seen that the system didn’t work, that it didn’t work like they thought it did, and that government didn’t work for the people.

That is my favorite example of how the trend in my errors is that I keep underestimating the degree of conspiracy.

I am thinking that I may be starting to bump up against the correct level of conspiracy because sometimes I am a little surprised at how much leash the Apex Players give their front men. Then again, maybe I am still underestimating the level of conspiracy. Maybe their power is so great now that they can afford to give their front men a longer leash. For example, their ability to control the narrative is unprecedented.

The Web

One might assume that if I am so good at analysis and prediction, then I should have been able to make more predictions, and with greater accuracy, and that I should be rich. However, I have no inside information, and even if I did have inside information, detailed prediction would still be very difficult. Even the Apex Players themselves would have trouble predicting details because they have constructed a world that is a mutually reinforcing web. Therefore, many alternative paths further their agenda, which let’s them not only choose from multiple plays for each of their many thousands of plays, but it lets them easily switch from plan A, to plan B, to plan C, if necessary, for each play.

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